Welcome!
This is the homepage for the Schadenfreudist x elevenify 2022 World Cup content. The content on this page is based on our machine-learning model.
Contents:
Booster (Chip) Strategy
Group Stage Fixtures - Projected Goals Scored
Group Stage Fixtures - Projected Clean Sheets
% Chance to Reach QF
Captaincy Matrix
Selection of Best Options in each position by projected points
Full List of Projected Points
Selection of Anytime Score %
The content on this page is intended to be used as decision-support tools. As with any information, you should use it as a reference point and always adjust for your own beliefs.
A note on the rules:
The rules and points scoring for World Cup fantasy are quite different from other games and it is highly recommended you give them a careful readthrough yourself: https://play.fifa.com/fantasy-classic/help/guidelines
Booster (Chip) Strategy
18th November update: the awful rules and admin of this fantasy game continue to waste all of our time. Everything previously in this section is irrelevant so we have deleted it. We likely won’t be able to write anything extensive before the tournament starts so we recommend you read the rules again (and again), check LetsTalkFPL Twitter and video for explanations.
TL;DR - our strategy: WC in MD2 to take advantage of full changes for both 2 matchdays | 12th Man MD1/3 | Power Captain in R16.
There are 3 boosters: Wildcard, 12th Man and Power Captain.
Wildcard – Will allow you to make unlimited transfers within a specific round (cannot be used for the first match of the group stage or for the round of 16).
12th Man – Will allow you to select 1 additional player to score points for your team in a matchday. When selected, the 12th man cannot be substituted, captained or transferred. You can select any player to be your twelfth man and budget or team restrictions do not count here.
Power Captain – Will allow you to get double points from whichever player scores the most points from your 15 man squad. This player will automatically be assigned the captaincy.
Group Stage Fixtures - Projected Goals For
Group Stage Fixtures - Projected Clean Sheet %
% Chance to Reach the QF
For reference, the 14th November predictions for Group Stage were as follows:
MD6 Best Options
Fixture-based Captaincy Matrix
The image below is a captaincy matrix based entirely on attacking fixture difficulty. Teams are ordered on each day based on how many goals they are likely to score. This more abstract version of a captaincy matrix can be helpful as a kind of ‘coverage sense check’ (e.g. a quick glance at the table indicates you should aim to get Brazil, France and Netherlands captaincy options). It is particularly useful in MD3 where strong teams may rotate more if qualification is secured.
Projected Points
Download MD7 Projected Points Spreadsheet.
Last updated: 17th Dec for MD7
These projected points were generated using a machine learning model. Please use them as a decision-support tool for making World Cup fantasy decisions. Enjoy!
A note on minutes: maintaining and tracking xMins and predicted starts for 32 teams is simply too big of a task for us so we have made the decision to make all projections based on an assumption of a start and playing the whole game. Therefore, you should view the predicted points and adjust based on your own belief as to the xMins of players. This may change starting from the R16 where modelling xMins becomes more manageable.
A note on penalty takers: this has been considered in the projected points but given less importance than usual due to the uncertainty. You should still be adjusting for your own beliefs.
Selection of anytime score %
The list below is a selection of anytime score % based on underlying data with a heavy blend of odds-based anytime %. If a player you are looking for is missing then you may want to double-check the general bookies’ odds yourself for an idea but it probably means they fall below the percentage threshold here:
Last updated: 9th Dec for MD5.
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